Police Need To Get As Good At PR And Math As They Are At Solving Arson Cases
- Strategeriest
- Jul 9, 2021
- 7 min read
Updated: Jul 11, 2021
“Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in their shoes. That way, you'll be a mile from them, and you'll have their shoes.”
-Jack Handey
Good Evening,
This quote is a metaphor made popular by SNL. I find it humorous as it is outrageously bold and contrary to social norms. It is contrary to social norms as it details how a coward deals with problems, not how an adult does. If you are going to criticize someone, it should be for the purpose of solving an issue or helping them. This is best done face to face, honestly discussing real issues, not preying on people whose preferred cognitive functions are centered around emotion as opposed to logical thinking, or bullying them in a venue with asymmetrical power structures, such as media channels.
I believe this is what the media is doing by sensationalizing rare instances of police misconduct against minorities. Obviously, police cannot see through the eyes of perpetrators or get inside the minds of the offenders to understand them. Short of that, they do an impossibly good job, when they are allowed to. When they are not allowed to, good people suffer. An example of such an impossible feat has been their ability to solve crimes where the evidence has been burned. Please see the above chart as a reference.
After viewing it, I am considering going to law school to specialize in representing under 18 arsonists with rich parents.
Considering this and all the good Police Officers do for their communities, why are they being led around on a leash by the media? It lends to the question: Why, why does the media seem to have an agenda to sway public opinion against law enforcement? Are they frustrated; they are not doing their job as it pertains to them in some manner? Are they being tortured, threated, stalked, harassed, and the police are not doing anything about it? I do not get it. I do not understand why a few arrests that went wrong were sensationalized to such an extent. In every incidence I have read about, where there was police misconduct, the perpetrators were arrested and charged. Why was there such an uproar by media and from African American communities about a despicable but extremely rare problem?
Has America lost it’s moxie? What happened to the land of the brave, home of the free, justice and liberty for all, good old fashion barfights, and church on Sunday morning. The below clip used to be acceptable if it was done for the right reasons, and the country was better for it.
These days, the kid in this video would have lost his CC permit and would have been charged with a hate crime for being the only one willing to standup to a bully.
The reason I believe the recent uproar from the media is dishonest is I looked at the statistics regarding the problem they are protesting about. Black males between the ages of 19 and 35 in the United States are less likely to be murdered on the day(s) they get arrested than any other day between their 18th and 35th birthdays. This is the real crime; the police are not the ones killing most black men. Unless the police are playing them like Call of Duty Soldiers in Chicago, the overwhelming majority of black men that are murdered, are murdered by other black men who do not carry a badge.
According to the FBI, in 2018, less than one percent of Black people who were murdered, were murdered by white people or killed by cops. Obviously, the difference in structural power makes these rare crimes more dishonorable, but they are rare non the less.
The amount of black people murdered by cops is almost nonexistent, statistically speaking. As of 2019, The United States has a Population of 255,200,373 people over the age of 18. 35,199,157 of these citizens are either black or of non-Hispanic heritage, constituting of two or more racial groups.
Of these 255,200,373 people 21.2 percent of them are between the ages of eighteen and thirty-five.
Of these 54,102,479.076 people (255,200,3730 * .212 = 54,102,479.076) roughly 52% of them are male.
Of these 28,049,816 citizens 13.7927529596518% or are black or multi-racial. 3,868,841.86 ( 0.518457134247401 * 54,102,479.076 *13.7927529596518% = 3,868,841.86 ), an astounding amount of them are murdered every year. I estimate it at almost 2,800 annually. The method I reached this conclusion by is below.
· In 2019, 13,927 people were identified as being murder victims in the United States, which had a population of roughly 328,000,000 people. (Please note these numbers are estimated with a high degree of variability depending on the source. I used these figures as a proxy, and as it is as it is a large, professionally done sample. )
By these figures, roughly .00425 percent of the total population is murdered each year. (13,927/328,000,000 = .0000425)
· By comparison, 45 percent of all murder victims in The United States are black and 72 percent of them are male. That indicates of the mentioned 13,972 murder victims in the United States in 2019, 4,554 of them were black males. (.45 * .72 * 13,972 = 4,554)
61 percent of all murder victims in the United States are between the ages of eighteen and thirty-five.
This indicates of the estimated 4,554 black males that were murdered in 2019, 2,761 of them were between the ages of eighteen and thirty-five. (.61 * 4,554 = 2,761).
This implies that black males in 2019 between the ages of eighteen and thirty-five had roughly a 0.07136% chance of being murdered in the United States in 2019. (2761/3,868,841.86= 0.07136%)
If you extrapolate this result going forward, it indicates a black male in the United States has a 1.14180% chance of being murdered after their 19th birthday, but before their 35th birthday. ( 16 * 0.07136% = 1.14180% ) So on an average day in the United States, a black male between the ages of eighteen and thirty-five has a 0.000195514% chance of being murdered. (0.15749% / ( 16 * 365 ) = 0.000195514%)
This 0.000195514% is greater than the chance that a black male between the ages of eighteen and thirty-five will be murdered by a police officer on the day(s) they are arrested by my estimation. Considering the media coverage in the United States regarding law enforcement using lethal force against black people, this may sound false and impossible. Below is how I reached this conclusion
Background:
Police Officers in the United States interact with citizens at a high frequency rate, and only about a fifth of those interactions result in an arrest.
In 2018, 23.7% of the United States population over the age of sixteen had contact with law enforcement officers in the United States. I estimate 8,545,700 of these 61,542,300 citizens were black, or multi-racial, 30,467,400 of them were male, and 32,378,400 were older than seventeen but younger than forty-five.
From this data I estimate, 19,658,314.29 of these citizens were between the ages of eighteen and thirty-five. As such, I estimate 1,351,393.62 individuals from the target demographic had interactions with law enforcement officers. Most of them at a high frequency rate of around five interactions a year.
((30467400 /61542300)*((32378400*(35-18)/(45-17))/61542300)*( 8545700/61542300)*61542300)
Of the mentioned 61,542,300 million police interactions had with the public, less than 1000 ended in a police shooting a civilian, and a couple hundred more died from other use of force interactions. Of the deceased, only 4% were unarmed and only 23% were black. I am assuming all of these were arrestable situations.
I could not find statistics on the amount of law enforcement officers tried or convicted for murder while performing their job, so below is my estimation based on conglomerating research.
Argument:
Conservatively, assuming that lethal force was not necessary for most of the unarmed civilian interactions and not necessary in some armed confrontations. I estimate eight percent of the use of lethal force cases could have been homicide. This is a very conservative estimation. If a suspect assaults an officer, the officer must protect their weapon at all costs which greatly increases the likelihood lethal force will be necessary.
As such, I estimate 4.416 of the deaths from the mentioned target demographic by law enforcement could have been murder. (1200*0.4*0.23*0.5*0.08) Please note this figure does not include friendly fire or errant casualties caused by proximity to armed suspects.
If you assume this target demographic interacts with police 6,756,968 times a year (1,351,393.62*5(5 is the estimated frequency of the number of times a year these citizens interact with police)) and these interactions only result in roughly 4.4 homicides committed by police officer, that is a staggeringly impressive feat. A feat that should be celebrated, not protested. It means there is a 0.00006512% ( 4.4/6,756,968) chance an interaction between a Police Officer and a citizen from this demographic will result in the citizen being unjustly murdered by a Police Officer.
Using this same logic, one can assume the number of citizens from this demographic murdered by Police Officers while being arrested is even lower than the estimated 4.416 figure. I estimate it to be around 4 citizens a year. This is extremely impressive considering every year around 2.5 million black citizens are arrested.
In 2019, 2,433,110 black citizens where arrested, roughly 72% of them male, and of those roughly 40% were in our target age demographic.
That implies of the 700,735.68 (2433110*0.72*0.4) arrests made by police of this demographic, I estimate only 4 resulted in homicide committed by the police officers. If accurate this means a suspect in this target has a 0.0005708% (4/700,736) chance of being murdered while being arrested.
As most murders of citizens in this demographic are gang related or affect citizens involved in dangerous illegal activity, I estimate those arrested are at least three times more likely to be murdered than the average person in this demographic group. Most of the statistics gathered regarding these probabilities focus on the research that has concluded black people are six times more likely to be murdered than white people in the United States.
The correlations used to derive contributing factors to this disturbing number, seem to be based mostly on location of inhabitance. I am arguing that involvement in dangerous, illegal activities increases this factor of six.
Conclusion:
As detailed above, I estimate there is a 0.000195514% percent chance that a black male in the United States will be murdered on any given day if they are older than 18 and younger than 35. When considering the dangerous lifestyles of those arrested from this demographic, I argue they are at least three times more likely to murdered than the average citizen from this demographic. Therefore, I have tentatively concluded that those who have been arrested or will be arrested from this population conservatively have a 0.000586543% chance of being murdered on any given day.
As estimated above, citizens from this same demographic have a 0.0005708% chance of being murdered by a Police Officer while being arrested. These estimations result in my opinion that Police Officers do such a good job, that for black males older than 18 and younger than 35 that have been arrested or will be arrested, they are less likely to be murdered on the day they are arrested than any other day between their 19th and 35th birthdays.
Warmest Regards,
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