An Academic Study: Can Math/Programming Be Used To Disprove Conspiracy Theories?

Good Morning,

There is a Conspiracy Theory circulating this past weekend that suggested the autopsy and investigation into the death of Christopher Sign was compromised due to the involvement of Democrats.

As these types of things seem to distract the public from the pressing issues of our elected officials bankrupting the country by taking on too much debt, weaponizing regulators for political/financial gains, and artificially suppressing interest rates to devalue the currency while the Timothy Geithner’s merely seem to be throwing their hands up in the air and muttering profanities as opposed to taking action, I will briefly address it.

Is the conspiracy theory propaganda about Christopher Sign going to cause a musical uprising such as that attributed to the incident involving Rodham King?

I doubt it, the visuals were too much for that incident to be swept into the barrel. I have a hunch the death of Christopher Sign will be forgotten and ruled a suicide.

However, I will address a Mathematical/AlGoreRythmic way one Clinton conspiracy can be confirmed or disproved.

There is a conspiracy theory that the Song “Mambo Number 5” was listing the names of Bill Clinton’s past infidelities with incredibly young woman.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EK_LN3XEcnw

I believe this conspiracy stemmed from allegations of false flag murders by Democratic PACs surrounding notable rap stars of the era to pit them against each other and the police officers being ordered around by proxies of the same Democratic PACs. This supposedly led to such songs as Warren G’s Regulate, and other such popular songs from the time.

However, I cannot prove or disprove the origin of the mentioned conspiracy theory. I have no idea and I would need more information to form an opinion. I would ask Elizabeth Warren, but I have ADD and do not have the patience to network into good standing with her backers to ask if that is the joke, it’s a “Something about Mary” reference, another joke I don’t get, or pity.

What I can do is provide an algorithm that can be used to debunk or confirm probabilities regarding lists of certain names being used in this song. These probabilities correlate with the probability that the list of names in this song were intentional.

To mathematically prove this allegation, one would first need the list of noticeably young woman who accompanied President Clinton alone on Helicopters or Airplanes(he most likely did not add them to his hotel reservations, and limo rides would not require such documentation.) I hope the mentioned records could obtained from flight manifests. It would be impossible to ask the Marines who accompanied President Clinton during the first few years of his Presidency for names, as they are no longer with us.

I do not have the flight manifests, so am unable to load their individual names into a queue. I will just provide code where the queues of names have already been assigned. I used the SSA’s baby names database for statistics on the names of the general population, as I do not have access to the national healthcare systems database which would allow me to narrow down queries even further.

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/babynames/

The names in Lou Bega’s song are:

Monica, Erica, Rita, Tina, Sandra, Mary, and Jessica.

Below is the R code to run a Monte Carlo simulation:

/* I assigned the manifest queue as ‘player’, the names in Lou Bega’s song as ‘victims’, and the names of the SSA database as ‘babynames’.

Please note the babynames database is huuuge and there is no equation for randomness. The random functions in most programming languages relies either on a computer’s temperature gauge or its internal timer. If you are getting results that look asymmetrical to a typical bell curve, an easy solution is to isolate the names being focused on for the Monte Carlo simulation and aggregate the remaining names into a single other variable. */

> Require (‘babynames’)

> Require(‘victims’)

> set.seed(12345) #sets the seed

> #load the dataset

> X<-babynames

> #use the individuals between 21 and 28 as of 1999

> x<-x[x$year<=1995&$year>=1975,]

> #keep only entries for women

> x<-x[x$sex==”F”,]

> #aggregate number of entries by name for this span

> X2<-x %>% group_by(name) %>% summarize(total = sum (n))

>#get the share of each name

>x2$share<-x2$total/sum(x2$total)

>#share of population named Monica or Moni, etc

>monica.share<-sum(x2$share[grep(“moni”,x2$name)])

>monica.share

// The above code will provide the probability of an individual node from the ‘victim’ queue being present in the ‘babynames’ dataset that is representative of the portion of the population being used as a sample.

> # expected number of Monica’s in 7 draws of the population

> # expected.monicas <-7*monica.share

> # expected.monicas

// This will provide the probability of the name Monica or a shorter deviation of the name showing up in in the ‘player’ sample. To get the results for each node of the ‘players’ queue, a loop will have to be written to run the simulation for all seven names.

> Library (‘splitstackshape’)

> x$monica<-as.integer(grepl(pattern = “Moni”, x = x$name))

>x3<-expandRows(x,”n”)

>x3<-x3[,c(‘moni’)]

> draws.moni<-c()

>#perform 10000 samples

>for (I in 1:10000) { + y <-x3{sample(nrow(x3), 6),] + draws.moni < -c(draws.moni,sum(y$moni)*1) +}

> table(draws.moni)

>draws.moni

// This will create the 10,000 random tables so that statistics can be derived from the results

>mean(draws.moni)

// This will find the mean of the data set so the data set can be used for statistical analysis

>sd(draws.moni)

// This will find the standard deviation of the data set so the data set can be used for statistical analysis

For those of you as rusty at programming as I am, basically all this code is doing it running a Monte Carlo simulation to evidence the truisms of the multiplicative theory of probability.

Basically, if there is a sample where every 1 in 100 people are named Monica, there is a 1% percent chance that if you select a random person from a similar sample that same their name will be Monica.

So, if you have a dataset of 5 victims named Monica, Erica, Tina, Rita, and Jessica and all of these names have the same frequency distribution in the general population of about 1%. The math to prove the likelihood of all of their names being included in a list of 7 names is not that difficult.

The equation is below:

(1/100)^5* (7) * (6) * (5) * (4) * (3)

The equation for only the name Monica showing up is below:

(1/100)*(7)

As you can see, 7% is a small number which makes plausible that this song is poking fun at Bill Clinton for begging for donations for his "charity", but not probable as the number is not really really small. However, if more names are confirmed from the list, the likelihood that it was intentional becomes exponentially greater.

Anyway the point is, with the proper data, intelligent people do not have to rely on conspiracy theories, they can just fact check. Let’s hope the investigators looking into the death of Christopher Sign are doing their due diligence, so that if foul play is suspected it can be either proven or disproven so the population is not distracted by another Clinton conspiracy theory.

Warmest Regards,